Suzanne Maloney

Once the mission is finished, even if the strait is not open, we do see other actors coming to try to play a larger role, particularly the Chinese, the Pakistanis.

Others are looking for some sort of an opportunity to end this crisis because, you know, this will impact the entire world if it plays out for weeks and months unended.

Well, I think however this ends, it is a critical juncture.

It is the end of American global leadership.

It is the end or the diminishment of our partnerships and alliances that have been so critical in the post-war era to preserving stability and security and prosperity in many places.

And what's also interesting is that the timeline for the end of this crisis is very much also influenced by the Chinese, because the president had scheduled a summit in Beijing.

He moved that as a result of the war being a bit more protracted than he had presumably intended.

But that new date for the summit in Beijing is May 14th and 15th.

And he would presumably need to have this in his rearview mirror by the time he goes to Beijing.

And that will give all the parties a bit of a stronger hand to try to push for a solution.

But it will not be a solution that will probably be driven by the United States at this point in time.

President Trump went into this war without a plan for the day after, not even a plan for day two or three of the war.

And what we now see is that, you know, the rest of the world is going to have to pick up that mantle and try to drive toward a solution for this crisis, because if it continues, it will have absolute catastrophic impact.

I think that's correct.

I don't see a victory in real terms at the end of this crisis.

We may be able to extricate ourselves without even more catastrophic human losses than have already been experienced.

But there is very little evidence that we're going to be able to come out of this war with a different regime in Iran, with less control over the Strait of Hormuz.

And that is a very dangerous outcome for the long term.

The wider implications of

the United States having undertaken this action in a way that alienated partners and allies in the region and all around the world and effectively ceded huge financial benefits to the Russians and potentially ceded some diplomatic opportunity to the Chinese.