Tim Molnar

do have a lot of success and so like before i kind of tie a bow on this i just want to also acknowledge michael rosenfeld who's a sociologist over at stanford runs a study called how couples meet and stay together and back in 2017 there were 39 of new relationships that were formed meeting online and today it's closer to 50 percent So it's a statistic we hear thrown around a lot.

And what it tells us is when people ask the binary question, do apps work, clearly they're working for a lot of people if we're saying that the goal is a relationship and not discussing some of the other frustrations and whatnot that come through with this. But to get back to this Tinder plot and kind of going from all of these swipes down to like very few or sometimes zero dates.

And what it tells us is when people ask the binary question, do apps work, clearly they're working for a lot of people if we're saying that the goal is a relationship and not discussing some of the other frustrations and whatnot that come through with this. But to get back to this Tinder plot and kind of going from all of these swipes down to like very few or sometimes zero dates.

And what it tells us is when people ask the binary question, do apps work, clearly they're working for a lot of people if we're saying that the goal is a relationship and not discussing some of the other frustrations and whatnot that come through with this. But to get back to this Tinder plot and kind of going from all of these swipes down to like very few or sometimes zero dates.

What's going on there? Well, when I dug into this a little bit more, Tinder had released a statistic around the success of men getting a match on dates and it was somewhere in the ballpark of two and a half percent.

What's going on there? Well, when I dug into this a little bit more, Tinder had released a statistic around the success of men getting a match on dates and it was somewhere in the ballpark of two and a half percent.

What's going on there? Well, when I dug into this a little bit more, Tinder had released a statistic around the success of men getting a match on dates and it was somewhere in the ballpark of two and a half percent.

So when they swipe Right on someone, there was a 2.5% chance that they were going to match with someone.

So when they swipe Right on someone, there was a 2.5% chance that they were going to match with someone.

So when they swipe Right on someone, there was a 2.5% chance that they were going to match with someone.

Yes. So say you swiped right on 100 profiles, you would expect 2.5% of those people to swipe back on you.

Yes. So say you swiped right on 100 profiles, you would expect 2.5% of those people to swipe back on you.

Yes. So say you swiped right on 100 profiles, you would expect 2.5% of those people to swipe back on you.

Yeah. And I'm only getting into the weeds on this. I know a lot of your audience is a little more right-brained, kind of like I am in these ways. So I think it's really interesting to understand. There's this idea where we have a few men who are maybe very conventionally attractive who are getting much higher success rates. So instead of 2.5%, they might be getting closer to 50%.

Yeah. And I'm only getting into the weeds on this. I know a lot of your audience is a little more right-brained, kind of like I am in these ways. So I think it's really interesting to understand. There's this idea where we have a few men who are maybe very conventionally attractive who are getting much higher success rates. So instead of 2.5%, they might be getting closer to 50%.

Yeah. And I'm only getting into the weeds on this. I know a lot of your audience is a little more right-brained, kind of like I am in these ways. So I think it's really interesting to understand. There's this idea where we have a few men who are maybe very conventionally attractive who are getting much higher success rates. So instead of 2.5%, they might be getting closer to 50%.

And I talk in the book about a theoretical sample size where this actually totally makes sense, where you have a handful of men who are doing very well and getting a lot of these swipes, and then a large swath of them who are getting zero or very few swipes, and it averages out to 2.5%, but it's what in mathematics we call a bimodal distribution. Basically, there are two modes.

And I talk in the book about a theoretical sample size where this actually totally makes sense, where you have a handful of men who are doing very well and getting a lot of these swipes, and then a large swath of them who are getting zero or very few swipes, and it averages out to 2.5%, but it's what in mathematics we call a bimodal distribution. Basically, there are two modes.

And I talk in the book about a theoretical sample size where this actually totally makes sense, where you have a handful of men who are doing very well and getting a lot of these swipes, and then a large swath of them who are getting zero or very few swipes, and it averages out to 2.5%, but it's what in mathematics we call a bimodal distribution. Basically, there are two modes.

There are two averages. There's the big group of people who are getting almost no matches, and then another group of people who's getting a high degree of matches.