Tim Stenovec

During Prohibition had become a brokerage house.

It's like a one-word answer.

It's probably boring.

Leverage is the match that lights the fire every single time.

You could have all the bad actors you want on stage doing all the bad, greedy things you could possibly imagine, but there isn't the leverage piece.

it's very hard to have a true systemic problem.

You know, I was shocked to know that at the end of 1929, the stock market was only down 17%.

And I actually think that was a head fake for a lot of politicians who were looking at the market and saying, oh, looks like things are better.

But most people didn't appreciate that during the 50% downdraft that had happened prior to that, it wasn't just that equities had fallen 50%, is that people had taken out loans, oftentimes 10 to 1,

So they didn't just owe what the equity was that had fallen.

They were getting margin calls saying, you've got to sell your house.

And so it's that.

And I think we saw that again in 2008 with the subprime crisis.

I mean, it repeats.

I think it's fair.

Look, I think all of these are- With all the data that we have to look at the market- I think all of these are red flags being thrown on the field.

Maybe I should say yellow flags being thrown on the field.

And the question is, when do they turn red?

And I think that's the hard part to know.

You know, famously, here we are, started this segment coming out of Jamie Dimon's interview.