Tim Stenovec

Back then there was, in 1929, there was a budget surplus in America.

Now we have $38 trillion.

The question is, let's say we have a crash and the government says, you know what, we're going to write a check for $5 trillion.

That's the put.

And whether you believe that there is some kind of invisible line that turns into a red line for the bond market, where they say, you know what, we like you guys in America.

We're happy to lend you money at three or four times the rate that we do today, and that's the interest rate you're going to pay.

And then all of a sudden, you actually do get into some kind of austerity spiral, and then you're living at a 25% unemployment rate in the country.

When you really start to try to get through the permutations, how do you get there?

In this day and age, that's one way.

The one other thing that's interesting today is the technology, as bad as it was then, in some cases could even be too good today.

And I think we learned that with the Silicon Valley bank failure, where someone goes on Twitter and says, I'm pulling my account.

Now, that information is accurate.

Everybody does it over the weekend on their phone.

Everybody does it.

I used to think, oh, this device is so great because if there was a bad piece of information, it could be corrected very quickly.

But if there's a accurate piece of information, that's not good.

But by the way, there is a lot of debt in the crypto market.

Well, look, the private credit business has always concerned me because of the transparency of it, or frankly, lack of transparency.

I think if you were to talk to Jay Powell, he would tell you that even the Federal Reserve doesn't have a full grasp of how interlinked all of the debt and credit is in the private credit market.

Having said that,