Tim Stenovec

it's very hard to have a true systemic problem.

You know, I was shocked to know that at the end of 1929, the stock market was only down 17%.

And I actually think that was a head fake for a lot of politicians who were looking at the market and saying, oh, looks like things are better.

But most people didn't appreciate that during the 50% downdraft that had happened prior to that, it wasn't just that equities had fallen 50%, is that people had taken out loans, oftentimes 10 to 1,

So they didn't just owe what the equity was that had fallen.

They were getting margin calls saying, you've got to sell your house.

And so it's that.

And I think we saw that again in 2008 with the subprime crisis.

I mean, it repeats.

I think it's fair.

Look, I think all of these are- With all the data that we have to look at the market- I think all of these are red flags being thrown on the field.

Maybe I should say yellow flags being thrown on the field.

And the question is, when do they turn red?

And I think that's the hard part to know.

You know, famously, here we are, started this segment coming out of Jamie Dimon's interview.

In 2008, his daughter had come to him, as this was all happening, and said, Dad, what's a financial crisis?

And he said, it's something that happens every seven or eight years.

And so I think the truth is, well, check your calendar.

So I have maybe more empathy for Herbert Hoover than others.

It's not that I think he made the right decisions.