Timeyin Akerele

You criticized the Monte Carlo.

You pointed out the Monte Carlo simulations in the paper might not be doing the calculations right based on your, maybe one of your colleagues.

I mean, I understood this point.

So if you need your memory jogging, I can help.

I think a good way of explaining that is a Monte Carlo simulation might assume that you get a really bad accumulation and a really bad decumulation phase.

So that certain people just have a rubbish market for decades.

But you're saying that through mean reversion, that's unlikely because of the business cycle.

Yeah.

So if we base...

our projections on these Monte Carlo simulations in this range of outcomes, they would say, well, there's a potential here that people have really bad markets while they're growing and really bad after, so they need to save loads of money to deal with that.

And if we work everyone on a worst case scenario, we all over-save, basically.

Yeah, because a Monte Carlo, I mean, is it from a casino?

Is that what it is?

Rolling the dice.

Whereas a Monte Carlo simulation will say someone will roll nothing but ones their whole life, whereas you're basically saying because of the stock market and the meme reversion.

It's very unlikely.

It's very, very unlikely.

That's a good way of thinking about it.

Yeah, yeah.

No, I thought that was a good point because I look at it and go, well, I need to base this on the worst case scenario and then,