Toby Bordelon
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
I got to be honest here.
I'm not sure I would call 9% growth solid for a company like this.
It's an e-commerce platform in a theoretically fast-growing Chinese consumer economy.
9% ain't going to cut it, because it's not meeting investor expectations here.
If they can't get the growth rates up,
I think the valuation multiples are going to come down.
They're going to come down fast.
My other problem here is the heavy spending they're doing.
Management even went so far as to warn that profits are going to fluctuate due to things like higher marketing costs, merchant subsidies, investment in the platform.
It's looking like a lot of what they expect this growth to be is going to be a lot more expensive going forward.
It signals the platform may not be very sticky for consumers.
Now, look, it's only cheap with the assumption that you're going to get a rebound on those growth rates.
If we are in a permanent growth decline, the market is going to reset to a lower valuation at some point.
From a platform and business investment standpoint, this could be a money pit, not a growth opportunity.
The bigger picture, Emily, I think, is we don't know what's driving these results.
What's the TMU contribution versus PDD?
What's the platform gross market value?
Gross market volume?