Toby Howell

On a you-and-me level, it means trading down when it comes to your vacation, maybe foregoing a week in St.

Barts for a road trip to St.

Louis.

That's been the historical norm, Neil.

When fuel prices tick up, consumers don't necessarily cancel trips altogether, but they do trade down.

You ever seen the Arch in person?

Yeah, the economic ripple effect that I like to call it, it just ticks all the way down when gas prices go up.

Because even if you don't cancel your trip, you do see maybe your hotel and meal spending change.

You'll see traveling to distances that are closer.

You'll see the drops in the number of days you actually spend away.

All of those decisions on a familial level that maybe we're not going to opt for the trip across the seas to Europe, that makes a big difference for economic activity in 2026.

So Wall Street has downgraded GDP forecasts this year to account for both the higher inflation and the hits of consumer spending that the gas price hikes are going to have on just the broader economy.

Yeah, bookings from U.S.

hubs to major European cities this summer are down 11% year over year.

Europeans coming to the U.S., so the other way, that's down even more sharply.

So the pullback is happening in both directions.

I will say, though, 2026 is a good year to stay domestic or as best a year in recent memory because we have the World Cup.

The world is coming to the United States.

So if you wanted to stay home,

If that is the case and the England fans can't make it over to the U.S.