Tom Barkin

Well, it's always good to come on right after a bunch of data comes out.

But I wouldn't be as negative on the productivity as you just were.

2.8% on the last 10 or 20 or 30-year basis is a really good number.

And I think we are seeing companies invest in productivity and deliver it.

Some of that technology, AI, but I think a lot of it is you were caught short workers three years ago.

You invested in new processes, new staffing models, automation, and people are seeing the results today.

And that holds down inflation.

It does hold down inflation and it allows people to maintain margins at times when their input costs might be might be coming up.

I don't have any sense on how long it's going to take or what the implications are going to be.

Obviously, you watch oil prices.

While the U.S.

is no longer a net importer, it's still the case that the price at the pump matters a lot in terms of sentiment, in terms of crowding out other spending.

And so, I'm just watching prices at the pump.

They've jumped up over the last week.

You can see that when you drive around.

But, of course, no one knows whether this is going to be short-term or long-term, and so we'll just see where it goes.

Well, I think we'll go meeting by meeting and we'll see what we see when we get there.

Gas prices, obviously, if they're up, that is inflationary.

Textbook monetary policy would be you look through a short-term shock, but you don't look through a long-term shock.

And I think that's a lot of the assessment people are going to have to make.