Tom Barkin

And so there are sectors with a lot more clarity and sectors with a lot less clarity.

And that's, I think, just going to be part of the game here.

Oh, I wouldn't know how to think about how markets ought to rise or not rise.

I mean, we're very much focused on trying to land the plane here in balancing inflation and unemployment.

As I said, I think both of them have ticked in the wrong direction.

But on the other hand, the downside is limited.

And we're just going to have to adjust our stance as we learn more.

Well, I really like the dot process for me because it forces real integration of your thinking in terms of where you think the economy is going, where you think policy is going.

But I don't have it as a forecast prediction.

It's not something I like to talk about publicly because it adjusts.

We do mark that dot to market as things go.

Every meeting for me is one where I want to stop and look at the balance between how we're doing on the inflation side and the unemployment side and make the right decision.

Well, I've seen a lot of the stuff that's been in the press, and we're studying that.

I always try to understand all arguments and figure out how to integrate them into my thinking.

I'd point you to the Richmond Fed, neutral rate, the Lubrick-Mathis model.

It takes a lot of signal from what you see in the real economy.

And in the real economy, over the last couple of years, what you've seen is interest rates go up and the economy stay relatively healthy.

And so that model has a relatively high neutral rate because it takes a lot of signal from the current environment.

Now, things can change, but that's where the Richmond Fed model is right now, and I'd point you to that.

What number do they have?