Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years — During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive
The oil shock will most certainly pass quickly when we exit the war, but the underlying problems in the private credit market continue to loom large whether we're in the war or not.
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years — During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive
There's a very specific technical dynamic in the dollar markets right now that analysts are only beginning to talk about, and it suggests the pressure we can see on the surface may be significantly understating the actual pressure building underneath of it.
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years — During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive
At the end of January 2026, just weeks before the first missiles hit Iran, a research paper was published in the Journal of Futures Markets that basically nobody read,
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years — During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive
And it suggests that the pressure we've been tracking, the repo market stress, the cross-currency basis tightening, the commodity liquidations, may be significantly understating how bad things actually are.
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years — During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive
Specifically, the researchers identified two regimes, what they call a high dollar regime, where the dollar is already strong and expected to stay that way,
Gold Just Had Its Worst Week In 43 Years — During An Active War. Something Is Wrong With The System Beneath It | Tom's Deep Dive
But a low dollar regime, where the dollar suddenly starts surging from a position of relative weakness, the tightening effect is dramatically more violent.