Tom Bilyeu

And these aren't policy choices that leaders are going to get to make.

It's just what happens when the machine that held the old world together stops working.

The first is deindustrialization.

The global economy we've all grown up in was built on cheap, stable energy from the Middle East.

Urban centers flourish, global supply chains move smoothly.

The knowledge economy, AI, all of it, all of it is downstream of affordable oil.

When energy becomes expensive and unreliable, the model inverts.

Local resilience beats global efficiency.

Nations have to rebuild more self-sufficient economies.

That's painful, sure, but it's coming regardless, at least according to Xiong.

The second inevitability is mercantilism.

The global free trade order required a guarantor, a cop, willing to enforce the rules all over the world.

In the scenario that we've been discussing, the U.S.

will no longer have the economic ability to act as the world's police force.

Even if they want to do it, they're not going to be able to do it because without that appetite for their debt, they can't deficit spend.

You have to balance your budget.

You can't be a world cop with a balanced budget.

Things will once again be forced to be regional.

Regional powers will emerge.

Countries will become more self-sufficient.