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Tom Bilyeu

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
9026 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

Given the current breakdown of the global world order, this creates a massive vulnerability and explains why both the Oracle Buffett and the architect Ray Dalio are modeling new investment strategies that converge on the same point.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

America and the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency is in trouble.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

Warren Buffett recently retired as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, as I'm sure most of you know.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

He handed the keys to Greg Abel at the start of 26, but before he did that, he made a move that should be a wake-up call for a lot of people.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

he retreated out of the markets to a record $381 billion cash pile.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

He spent the last several quarters aggressively selling off foundational American assets like Apple and Bank of America.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

Why?

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

Because Buffett knows there's trouble in paradise and there's just way too much unpredictability building up in the system.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

When valuations are stretched the way they are in the market now, and the global order is shifting as rapidly as it is right now, he prefers to maintain optionality.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

In Buffett's view, having liquid cash during a crisis isn't just safety, it's a weapon that allows you to be quote-unquote greedy when others are fearful.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

By being liquid, he doesn't have to predict the future.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

He can simply react to whatever happens when historically strong bets go on sale.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

And that's going to happen because everyone else is going to get caught off guard and they're going to panic or go broke from margin calls, bad debt, and or

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

horrible gambles on a market they no longer understand.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

Ray Dalio, meanwhile, has been studying the last 500 years of the rise and fall of empires, and he spent an insane amount of time personally in China over the last 30 or 40 years.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

He has seen China's strategies up close, and he knows exactly what they're capable of.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

And his assessment of the current state of affairs in the US is that we're on the brink of crossing from stage five of the big debt cycle, which is marked by the over-accumulation of debt and populist infighting, and moving into stage six,

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

which is war and total collapse he has explicitly warned of a potential financial heart attack hitting in or around 2026 as the interest payments on our 38.5 trillion dollars in debt

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

just swallow the entire US budget.

Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Silver Shock: How China Just Changed the Global Game and Put the Dollar at Risk | Tom's DeepDives

His mental model for dealing with all of this is what he calls the all-weather portfolio.