Tom Bilyeu
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Given the current breakdown of the global world order, this creates a massive vulnerability and explains why both the Oracle Buffett and the architect Ray Dalio are modeling new investment strategies that converge on the same point.
America and the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency is in trouble.
Warren Buffett recently retired as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, as I'm sure most of you know.
He handed the keys to Greg Abel at the start of 26, but before he did that, he made a move that should be a wake-up call for a lot of people.
he retreated out of the markets to a record $381 billion cash pile.
He spent the last several quarters aggressively selling off foundational American assets like Apple and Bank of America.
Why?
Because Buffett knows there's trouble in paradise and there's just way too much unpredictability building up in the system.
When valuations are stretched the way they are in the market now, and the global order is shifting as rapidly as it is right now, he prefers to maintain optionality.
In Buffett's view, having liquid cash during a crisis isn't just safety, it's a weapon that allows you to be quote-unquote greedy when others are fearful.
By being liquid, he doesn't have to predict the future.
He can simply react to whatever happens when historically strong bets go on sale.
And that's going to happen because everyone else is going to get caught off guard and they're going to panic or go broke from margin calls, bad debt, and or
horrible gambles on a market they no longer understand.
Ray Dalio, meanwhile, has been studying the last 500 years of the rise and fall of empires, and he spent an insane amount of time personally in China over the last 30 or 40 years.
He has seen China's strategies up close, and he knows exactly what they're capable of.
And his assessment of the current state of affairs in the US is that we're on the brink of crossing from stage five of the big debt cycle, which is marked by the over-accumulation of debt and populist infighting, and moving into stage six,
which is war and total collapse he has explicitly warned of a potential financial heart attack hitting in or around 2026 as the interest payments on our 38.5 trillion dollars in debt
just swallow the entire US budget.
His mental model for dealing with all of this is what he calls the all-weather portfolio.