Tom Gardner

But as you get older and move closer to retirement, you have more and more people who have a million dollar portfolio.

And also they're starting to run out of their income years.

So those 40% declines can have a much more profound effect on their lifestyle and their quality of their life.

Of course, there was the Great Depression, but I think we have a lot more protections, a lot more solidity and dynamism to our market that 40% is a good one to work off of.

So then I, tracking back from that, I use my two market indicators.

The first is the potential growth indicator, the PGI, and the second is our market view tool, which is AI-powered.

The first is just measuring the amount of cash that's flowing in and out of the market.

It's basically saying if there's a lot of cash on the sidelines, that's a good time to invest because that cash will come back in.

And if there's not that much cash on the sidelines, it's all in the market.

Like you could even have great earnings reports and companies could be doing amazing, innovative things.

But if there isn't more cash that can come into the market, you're not going to get a lot of upside.

So that tool is essentially saying that the market is somewhat overvalued now and that we might want to expect something more like

eight and a half percent or nine percent a year instead of the sort of 10 to 11 percent a year that U.S.

equity markets have delivered over very long periods of time.

So you're like, OK, good.

I'm going to be cautious.

I'm going to be moderate.

But the market view tool is using floods of data sources.

And it's not just following cash in and out of the market.

It's following cash flow projections across all U.S.