Tom Gardner
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And when markets are doing well, you actually see a reduction in the volatility because people feel comfortable.
It's like the water's safe.
I'm going to go swimming.
Everything's great, right?
But when things become treacherous and they start bailing, stocks become very volatile.
So there's a calm sea right now in the market.
And that is a precursor
you know, to volatility.
The second thing is the PE on the S&P 500 is over 25.
We're at over 25 times earnings.
You can look back throughout history at great investors like Peter Lynch saying, you know, the market moves between a 10X multiple and 20X multiple.
And you know, says Peter Lynch, when it's at 20x, you know you're richly priced because it's almost never gone above 20x in history.
Well, the time he was giving that interview, it was true.
There really had not been a time where the general U.S.
market was above 20 times earnings.
We're now above 25 times earnings.
We're definitely gonna have higher margins from the deployment of AI.
We're gonna see productivity gains like we've never seen before in American business.
So that has to be reflected in valuation.
And that is part of what's happening.