Torsten Slok

We should all be stepping back and looking at this with a much more long-term perspective.

Let's agree that the situation we have today, it's not sustainable.

We cannot have this, we can discuss for a long time, but we cannot have this for several years, definitely not, and we cannot perhaps even have it for several months.

And if that's the case,

We should expect to have some resolution.

It makes sense that it's complicated for everyone to figure out what is the military strategy, what's going to be the response on both sides.

But the conclusion must be that from a market perspective, we're getting closer to the midterm election in eight months.

From that perspective, there's probably also some political considerations, both in Iran and in the U.S., that comes to the conclusion.

50 years?

50 years?

But I do think that at the end of this, we will probably have a situation that is quite different in the sense that we will probably have, at least from the GCC side in the Middle East, probably more connection with the US, probably more connection with Europe, and therefore probably also more stability, more broadly relative to where we were just a few months ago.

Yeah, so the chart you look at here, it shows you from the Treasury, they put out data for what is the total amount of U.S.

Treasury debt that needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months.

And as you can see in the yellow line, it is about $10 trillion that needs to be refinanced.

In other words, U.S.

government debt that rolls over.

So this is bills, this is coupons, this is across the whole curve.

If you now add to that two other things, on top of that line, we also have $2 trillion in government budget deficit.

So that brings us to $12 trillion in

And finally, we also have about 2 trillion in net gross issuance from the hyperscalers and the banks and IG.