Torsten Slok

Iran is where we probably have to start here, specifically oil prices, which just skyrocketed over the weekend, went above 100, hit a peak of $118 a barrel.

We'll see where things head.

I mean, it's very, very volatile at this point.

But as the chief economist at Apollo, I just want to hear what you make of what's happening in Iran, how it's affecting

commodities prices and why it matters.

So it seems like a big problem as a result of that inflation.

Let's assume that oil prices are going to stay elevated.

To be clear, Trump has said this is going to be short term.

They're going to come back down.

Everything's going to be fine.

But let's assume, as you're saying, oil prices stay elevated.

It translates to higher prices at the pump, which translates to even worse inflation, which is already pretty elevated right now.

Doesn't that mean that the Fed...

is now going to consider raising rates in an environment where the labor market is already showing signs of weakness, where it's already getting tighter and worsening, which to me sounds like actually a double whammy of a problem of both rising prices and also a shaky labor market.

Why do you say it's premature exactly?

Because this to me has been the big question surrounding Iran, where we saw the Iran strikes.

it seems to me as an observer, as a very uncertain environment that perhaps would be a problem for investors.

But then markets basically told us and investors basically told us like, we don't really know yet.

And if anything, this has put more certainty on the situation because now we've concluded something to this Iran chapter, we've ended Khamenei's regime and now we're in a new chapter.

And this idea of prematurity was a big debate.