Torsten Slok

They're going to come back down.

Everything's going to be fine.

But let's assume, as you're saying, oil prices stay elevated.

It translates to higher prices at the pump, which translates to even worse inflation, which is already pretty elevated right now.

Doesn't that mean that the Fed...

is now going to consider raising rates in an environment where the labor market is already showing signs of weakness, where it's already getting tighter and worsening, which to me sounds like actually a double whammy of a problem of both rising prices and also a shaky labor market.

Why do you say it's premature exactly?

Because this to me has been the big question surrounding Iran, where we saw the Iran strikes.

it seems to me as an observer, as a very uncertain environment that perhaps would be a problem for investors.

But then markets basically told us and investors basically told us like, we don't really know yet.

And if anything, this has put more certainty on the situation because now we've concluded something to this Iran chapter, we've ended Khamenei's regime and now we're in a new chapter.

And this idea of prematurity was a big debate.

where I was looking at oil prices, I'm thinking they should be higher, like people should be more concerned.

But then other people say, no, we don't know anything yet.

Well, now here we're in a situation where oil prices have risen, maybe they'll come back down.

But I guess the question for me, when I look at markets, the question for investors is, why isn't it good to have a premature conversation?

Is that not the way we should be thinking about something that is as uncertain as it is today?

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I generally agree, but I have two pieces of pushback that I think a lot of people would have.