Tracy Alloway

The Trump factor, which is basically that chaos that you're talking about, like if the chaos is so unpredictable and if the headlines are changing on a day to day, if not hour by hour, minute by minute basis, all you can kind of do is try to look through some of that and think about what earnings would look like without that cloud of chaos sort of obscuring them.

I'll try not to take it personally.

Joe likes to make fun of rational takes on the market.

I think the guy at the party has a very rational take on the market.

Like I'm all in favor of sincere, basic analysis on Twitter.

And that is some sincere, basic, accurate analysis, I would argue, which is we haven't seen all of the impacts flow through into global markets just yet.

I mean, just a week ago, we still had ships that had the last loads of Middle East oil that were making deliveries, right?

So again, we are waiting to see the full impact of this.

We've already seen some demand destruction, mostly in emerging market countries like Bangladesh, maybe Thailand, that aren't necessarily going to resonate with Americans just yet.

But it is an undeniable fact that

that 20% of the world's oil and gas supply has been disrupted for the past six or seven weeks.

We've seen critical damage to a bunch of oil and gas facilities in the Middle East that in some cases is going to take years to fully repair.

Qatar came out and talked about one of its oil and gas fields was going to take three to five years to actually fix.

That is just inevitably going to have to translate into higher prices.

And the wild card, I guess, is

the supply response from the US, are we actually going to see a bunch of drillers try to make up that lost production over here?

We've been doing a bunch of episodes on this.

I'm sure you've been listening.

I hope you've been listening.

We spoke to Jack McClendon.