Trae (Trey) Stephens

Of course, there's some edge case that Taiwan doesn't object and just lets it happen that means that they won't go into a military conflict.

I would rate that as a pretty low probability.

And so, you know, they've got a short timeline to get their stuff together to be able to credibly deter Chinese aggression.

And so that's kind of the small window that we're in right now.

It's, it's done.

Not a shot fired.

Yep.

I mean, that is the optimal case for China obviously is that they can use soft power means to just do it kind of in the way that they did Hong Kong.

Um, and I don't think there's a 0% probability that that's the way that it goes down.

So, yeah.

I mean, they have like 250 times the shipbuilding capacity that we have.

I mean, that's like a huge problem for us being able to keep up militarily.

We've gutted our entire industrial base in the United States in service of globalization for economic optimization.

And China has been the primary beneficiary of that transition.

I think that they're so much better suited to addressing these long-running problems with making things in the real world than we are.

One of the things that we often hear at Founders Sun, we often hear hardware builders talk about is that

Even if you had unlimited money and you were going to set up a factory in the United States to build something that is currently being built in China, you wouldn't even be able to operate the factory.

Because the skill that's required to make these things with high yields and quality, it's all in China.

We don't even have people in the United States that know how to run these machines.

And so we have to figure out some way to reskill.