Trita Parsi

This is the only deterrence they have left against Israel.

For them to dismantle their missile program means that they would be completely defenseless against Israel.

And Israel has shown its ability or its willingness to attack any country that is defenseless against it.

So for them to leak this at this point seems to be more of an effort to try to sabotage those talks because of the fear that Trump ultimately will agree to this.

I mean, first of all, let's keep in mind, Trump didn't even talk about missiles until December 29th.

So this is not an old American red line.

This is a very new red line that is no more than five weeks old, and he may be putting it to rest.

And this is something then that I think certain elements are trying to sabotage.

Well, this leak may have had the intent of putting pressure on the Iranians by saying that, you know, the US is ready for a longer war.

But it may also have had the opposite intent.

It may have had the intent of putting pressure on the administration itself, recognizing, which I think many people in the Pentagon recognize, that Trump ultimately does not want to have a long war.

He likes quick, glorious successes.

And if he gets dragged into something that is longer, what he tends to do is that he cuts them short and he withdraws, which I think is the right thing to do when you're into something that is not working.

But that's not something the Pentagon likes.

The Pentagon doesn't like to be sent off into a military confrontation and then be pulled back without having succeeding, particularly if it's only after a couple of weeks.

So I think this is also a bit of a warning of essentially saying, don't put us into something that you're not intending to finish.

And this will not be finished quickly, and it will not be finished easily, and it will probably drag on much more than weeks, probably months.

So I think, again, part of the reason why this hasn't happened yet

It's not that he just didn't have the resources there to pursue it.

Even with those resources, we have like a third of the Navy in the Persian Gulf now, or in the Arabian Sea.