Trita Parsi

And it will not be like before.

They were not going to go into a scenario in which the Israelis slowly but surely, constantly increase the type of, I mean, Gaza or a Lebanese scenario in which the Israelis gradually increase their attacks on Lebanon or on Gaza while the ceasefire is still in place.

They will not accept that.

So it's

slightest thing from the Israelis, the Iranians are going to strike back very, very hard.

Then the question is, if the war between Israel and Iran resumes, first of all, can the Israelis manage that without the United States being involved?

I have my severe doubts about that, both from a military standpoint, from an intelligence standpoint, the amount of help the Israelis need, but also from a public opinion standpoint.

Will the Israeli public go along with

further war with Iran, in which they do take a lot of hits themselves, but without the US being part of the war.

And I think that can change dramatically.

It could also create a scenario in which the Israelis will, of course, do their outmost to get the U.S.

back into the war.

And that will be a real test.

If Trump has managed to pull out of this war, cuts his losses on the straits, but then goes back in because the Israelis want it, again, I have a hard time seeing that happening.

But then again, I was wrong about him going into this war in the first place because it was so utterly clear in my view that it would be a disaster, yet he did it.

But you can also see a scenario in which the US doesn't go back in and then the Iranians have managed to achieve something else, which is they have truly separated the US from Israel.

That would be a huge strategic win for the Iranians, which may be part of the reason why the Israelis actually won't go into the war again with the Iranians, knowing very well that that might be an outcome from that move.

So first of all, as you said, we have to take all of these different intelligence reports leaking to media without much scrutiny, with a pinch of salt.

But I think also we have to take the definition of China helping Iran somewhat carefully.

For the Chinese to continue to sell stuff to Iran, including chemical things, is not from the Chinese perspective in any way, shape or form, them actually helping Iran in the war.