Trita Parsi

That's a direct confrontation with the Chinese and the Indians and other countries in Asia that are buying this oil.

So it is not as simple as to believe that this is just some sort of a pressure on Iran.

It will be pressure on Iran.

But more than anything else, it will be pressure on other countries that actually have strong relations with the U.S.

and on the energy market.

Anything that right now takes energy off of markets will push up oil prices.

That will lead to higher gas prices in the United States, which dramatically backfires on Trump and on the Republican Party in the midterms.

On top of that, if the US goes really hard on this issue,

then there's a high likelihood that the Houthis will step in and they will close off the Gulf of Aden, and there won't be any ships going through there either.

That suddenly means that another 12%, in addition to the 20% of the flow of oil that has been compromised because of Iran's current control of the straits, would also then go off the market, and that will dramatically push up oil prices.

Moreover, in order for this to be workable for the U.S., even if the U.S.

is capable of absorbing those hits, it would require that this goes on for some time.

This is not a quick thing.

This is not something in which you do it and suddenly the Iranians cave.

And then that raises the question, who has most tolerance for this?

The United States and not just the United States, but Donald Trump and his political situation or the Iranians?

Yeah.

I think this is yet another one of these examples in which, yes, the U.S.

can escalate, but the Iranian counter escalation is far more painful to the U.S.

than the U.S.