Tyler Cowen

It's not something you can do by formula.

It's not something an okay teacher will even necessarily be very good at.

But our ability to reshuffle the personnel, the procedures, we just seem to me really quite frozen.

Well, it's both, but I think we're producing a generation of students who will go out on the labor market and be quite unprepared for what they're expected to do.

And then as AI progresses yet further, maybe they'll just retrain, but you spent four or however many years in college, that was the time to do it.

And we taught them things that in a way were counterproductive even.

So some of it is, yes, output will be lower, but I think many of the highest costs will be psychological.

people feeling they do not fit into this world, and they'll be somewhat correct.

Yeah, I don't doubt many people will use all this to become lazier, but also a lot of other people will learn like never before.

And one of my hopes is you have places such as most of Africa where there's immense human curiosity, but major institutional obstacles, and that something like open source AI on mobile devices will give some subset of these people an incredible education, maybe in some ways better than what a lot of us will be getting, and they'll do a kind of leapfrogging.

We don't know that yet, but I think there's quite a good chance that's what we'll see.

The biggest problems might come in the European Union, where there's active hostility.

At least your government will make noises about wanting to do things.

I'm not sure that will be followed through on as it goes through the bureaucracy.

But European Union, I don't see progress there.

They don't have their own significant models.

There are numerous laws that make AI much harder to do or even like technically illegal.

They need to get their act together.

We'll see.

But, you know, for instance, I don't doubt that many European countries will move to 5% GDP for defense spending, but they might do it in a quite bureaucratic way that rewards existing interest groups