Tyler Cowen

So with Trump, it's always very hard to predict.

The lack of predictability, I would say, is itself a big problem.

But again, if you're looking for one area where it's good, that would be my pick.

You know, that restriction I favored when it was put in.

I'm now of the view that it has not proved useful.

And if you look at how many of those chips get sold, say, to Malaysia, which is not a top AI performer, one strongly suspects they end up going to China.

China is incentivized to develop its own high quality chips and be fully independent of Western supply lines.

So I think it's not worked out well.

Interesting question.

What kind of timing do you want for when both America and China get super powerful AI?

And I don't think you actually want only America to have it.

It's a bit like nuclear weapons.

But you don't want China to have it first.

So you want some kind of staggered sequence where we're always a bit ahead of them, but they also maybe are constraining us a bit.

I hope we're on track to get that.

But I really, really don't want China to have it first.

Yes, I think it changes or will change so many parts of life.

Again, it's a bit difficult to specify worries, but how we think of ourselves as humans, how we think of our gods, our religions, I feel all that will be different.

If you imagine trying to predict the effects of the printing press after Gutenberg, that would have been nearly impossible to do.

I think we're all very glad we got the printing press, but you would not say all of it went well.