Tyler Cowen

So what you'd call prediction markets are not forecasting super rapid growth anytime soon.

If you look at what experts on economic growth write, we had Chad Jones here yesterday.

He's not predicting super rapid growth, though he thinks AI might well accelerate rates of growth.

So the experts and the markets agree.

Who am I to say different from the experts in the market?

You're an expert.

Yeah, but I'm with the other experts.

Why not buy the models?

His model is far too much a one-factor model, right?

Population.

I don't think it's very predictive.

We've had big increases in effective world population in terms of purchasing power.

A lot of different areas have not become more innovative.

Until the last, say, four years, most of them became less innovative.

So it's really about the quality of your best people or institutions, as you and Patrick were discussing last night.

And there it's unclear what's happened, but it's also fragile.

There's the perspective of the economist, but also that of the anthropologist, the sociologist.

They all matter.

But I think the more you stack different pluralistic perspectives, the harder it is to see that there's any simple lever you can push on, intelligence or not, that's going to give you breakaway economic growth.

You're bottlenecked.