Tyler Cowen

Over time, it's probably going to double.

I'm not sure it'd be a noticeable difference.

Yeah, I'm not sure.

I don't think the Romer model has been validated by the data.

And I don't agree with the Chad Jones model much as I love him as an economist.

I don't think it's that predictive.

I mean, look at artistic production in Renaissance Florence.

There's what, 60,000 people in the city, the surrounding countryside, but it's that so many things went right at the top level that it was so amazing in terms of still value added today.

And the numbers model, it doesn't predict very well.

No, the Delta is a killer, right?

This is one thing we learned from macro.

The Delta and the levels really interact.

So shrinking can kill you.

Just like companies, nonprofits, if they shrink too much, often they just blow up and disappear.

They implode.

But that doesn't mean that growing them gets you 3x, 4x, whatever, proportional to how they grow.

It's oddly asymmetric.

It's very hard to internalize emotionally that intuition in your understanding of the real world.

But I think we need to.

Humans.