Tyler Cowen

And then in some funny way, over a 20-year period, that adds up to a very different world.

And that's what I think we're in for.

I do not expect huge job displacement.

there will be an enormous number of new jobs incorporating AI into the routines of established institutions and also building out new institutions.

Now, I do think what will happen is those new efforts will be a little slow to get underway.

And in the meantime, a lot of employers will be somewhat skittish about hiring more people because they'll say, well, ideally, I like to keep workers for five years.

Maybe this hire will be obsolete because of AI.

So for now, I'll wait.

Reluctance to hire new people

will outpace the creation of new jobs through AI.

I'm not sure it will be noticeable in the aggregate numbers.

I think it will be noticeable in job market vibe.

I don't think many people will be fired.

A lot of jobs will change.

A lot of people will be replaced by others who have learned how to use AI.

But I don't think we'll see a much higher rate of unemployment, at least assuming we do not make other stupid mistakes when it comes to macro policy.

I agree with that.

I think parts of each of our countries where you have a lot of young, recent college graduates entering the market for the first time, that's where the negative impact will be the strongest.

I have a decent sense where that is in America.

You would know better about the UK, but that's exactly where I think it will show up.