Tyler Cowen

You have a bigger fiscal crisis.

You have a talent crisis.

For some set of reasons I can't explain, you just don't seem to be able to get your act together to do a bunch of things.

I don't know why.

The very best estimate we have is that which is embedded in market prices.

And there are plenty of market prices that indirectly give signals about what will happen.

I would say if you look at currencies, equity prices, real interest rates, levels of volatility, really anywhere you care to look, the world looks pretty normal, at least for our two economies.

Weird uncertainty surrounding Trump and tariffs.

It's not related to AI.

But people in the market who know these AI arguments, they think there may be an effect.

NVIDIA obviously is a

a pricey stock, but they don't see the world being radically overturned anytime soon.

And I think they're correct.

If you think they're wrong, you're very able to go out there and bet against them, whatever your view may be.

So far, the risk capital, people who have real money at stake are essentially agreeing with the position the two of us have set out.

We're agreeing too much again.

The exact number I've been giving people is an extra half percentage point a year surrounded by high variance.

And again, over time, that is a big, big deal.

And I'm fairly convinced it will be.

But in any given year, you will notice all sorts of anecdotes like, oh, all my friends are using GPT as a therapist, which may not have major economic impact, but it is a sign things are changing.