Tyler Cowen

Enjoy this moment.

It's all basically gonna fall apart.

You're still gonna have some really significant influence, but you won't feel like you have continued to exist as a movement.

That's what I said.

And they were shocked.

They thought I was insane.

But I think I was mostly right.

Well, I was surprised when SBF was insolvent.

I thought it was a high-risk venture that had no regulatory defense and would end up being worth zero.

But I didn't think he was actually playing funny games with the money.

I just have a long history of seeing movements in my lifetime from the 1960s onwards, including libertarianism, and there are common patterns that happens to them all.

We're here in Berkeley, my goodness.

Free speech movement?

Where's free speech in Berkeley today?

Like, how'd that, you know, work out in the final analysis?

So it's a very common pattern.

And just to think, wow, the common pattern is going to repeat itself.

And then you see some intuitive signs.

And you're just like, yeah, that's going to happen.

And the private benefits of belonging to EA, like they were very real in terms of the people you could hang out with or like the sex you could have.