Tyler Cowen

So yeah, they're going to be bottlenecks all along the way, the whole way.

And it's gonna be a tough slog, like the printing press, like electricity.

The people who study diffusion of new technologies never think there will be rapid takeoff.

So my view is kind of like I'm always siding with the experts.

Economists, social scientists, most of them are blind and asleep to the promise of strong AI.

They're just out to lunch.

I think they're wrong.

I trust the AI experts.

But when you talk about, say, diffusion of new technologies, the people who do AI are basically totally wrong.

The people who study that issue, I trust the experts.

And if you put together the two views or in each area you trust the experts, then you get my view, which is amazing in the long run, will take a long time, tough slog, all these bottlenecks in the short run.

And the fact that there's like a billion of your GPT whatevers, which I'm all in love with, I promise you, it's going to take a while.

Well, what's the variable I'm trying to predict?

If you mean energy usage, that's going to go up, right?

Over time, it's probably going to double.

I'm not sure it'd be a noticeable difference.

Yeah, I'm not sure.

I don't think the Romer model has been validated by the data.

And I don't agree with the Chad Jones model much as I love him as an economist.

I don't think it's that predictive.