Tyler Cowen

Typical rate of economic growth during that period was about 1.5%.

And the future is about compounding and sticking with it and, you know, seeing things pay off in the long run.

Just human beings are not going to change that much.

And I don't think that property of our world will change that much, even with a lot more IQ and conscientiousness.

You know, I don't remember what I thought in what month, but I would say on the whole, I see more potential in AI than I did a year ago.

And I think it has made progress more quickly than I had been expecting.

And I was pretty bullish on it back then.

The 01 model to me is very impressive.

And I think further extensions in that direction will make a big, big difference.

And the rate at which they come is hard to say.

But it's something we have.

And we just have to make it better.

Those questions were too easy.

They were for GPT-4, and it's like abandoned, those questions.

You know, 100 questions of economics, how well does a human do on them?

They're hard, but it's like pointless.

So I would not be shocked if somebody's AI model in less than three years beat human experts on a regular basis.

Let's put it that way.

I feel like Kasparov, the first time he met Deep Blue, you know, there were two matches, and the first one, Kasparov won.

And I lived through that first match.