Tyler Cowen

And that's a great concern.

But I see the very bottom and a big chunk of the top of the distribution as just much better.

And I think it's pretty proven by numbers that that's the case.

So I would say this increasing variance with the weird mix of where the gains and declines are showing up.

And I've said this to Patrick and I'm gonna say it to him again and I hope I can convince him.

The median goes down.

A lot of tests, they've pushed more people into taking the test, PISA scores in particular.

So I suspect those scores adjusted for that are roughly constant, which is still not great, I agree.

And I think there's some decline, some of it is pandemic and we're recovering a bit slowly, getting back to human bottlenecks.

But I think a lot of the talk of declining test scores is somewhat overblown.

At most, there's a very modest decline, I would say.

There's plenty of data on the earnings of Stanford kids.

If there were a betting market in what's the future trend, I'm long.

How long I should be, I really don't know.

But I visit Stanford, not every year, but regularly.

There's selection in who it is I meet, but yeah, we're talking about selection, and they're very impressive.

And Emergent Ventures has funded a lot of people from Stanford.

As far as I can tell, as a group, they're doing very well.

So that is of no concern to me.

If you're worried about the Stanford kids, something seems off in the level of salience and focus in the argument, because they're overall doing great.