Tyler Cowen

He had all those stacked vertically and then we got this bad genetic luck of the draw on Stalin and it turned out obviously pretty terrible.

I think what Hayek said is subtler than that.

And I wouldn't say it's Hayek's explanation.

I would say Hayek pinpointed one factor.

There are quite a few autocracies in the world today where the worst people have not risen to the top.

UAE would be, I think, the most obvious example.

I've been there.

As far as I can tell, they're doing a great job running the country.

There are things they do that are nasty and unpleasant.

I would be delighted if they could evolve into a democracy.

But the worst people are not running UAE.

This I'm quite sure of.

So it's a tendency.

There are other forces.

But culture really matters.

Hayek is writing about a very specific place and time.

I would say it really surprised me.

There are these family-based Gulf monarchies with very large clannish interest groups of thousands of people that have proven more stable and more meritocratic than I ever would have dreamed, say, in 1980.

And I know I don't understand it, but I just see it in the data.

It's not just UAE.