Tyler Cowen

And from this day onwards, I don't give up that belief at all.

But just as a movement, I thought it was going to collapse.

You know, when Patrick and I wrote the piece on progress and progress studies, he and I thought about this, talked about it.

I can't speak for him, but my view at least was that it would never be such a formal thing or like controlled or managed or directed by a small group of people or like trademarked or it would be people doing things in a very decentralized way that would reflect a general change of ethos and vibe.

So I hope it has in many ways like a gentler but more enduring trajectory.

And I think so far I'm seeing that.

Like I think in a lot of countries, science policy will be much better because of progress studies.

That's not proven yet.

You see some signs of that.

You wouldn't say it's really flipped.

But a lot of reforms.

You're in an area like no one else

has any idea, much less a better idea or a good idea.

And some modestly small number of people with some talent will work on it and get like a third to half of what they want.

And that will have a huge impact.

And like, if that's all it is, I'm thrilled.

And I think it will be more than that.

I don't think about it very differently, but again, if you buy my view about slow takeoff, why should it be that different?

Well, have more degrees of freedom.

So if you have more degrees of freedom, all your choices, decisions, issues, problems are more complex, so you're in more need of some kind of guidance.