Tyler Cowen

Well, the AI is already smarter than I am, even if you just restrict it to economics.

If there were some kind of like economics Olympics and I was up against 03, 03 would beat me.

That's not hypothetical.

It's not the future tense.

That's today.

What's interesting is how little it matters.

So demand for my services insofar as I wish to supply them, it's up, not down.

And that's what would take a long time.

But I would make the side point, that's a co-authored essay and we each wrote it.

And Abital thinks the pace of change will be much faster than I think it will be.

So the SA, you could say, is a weighted average of our two opinions.

I'm fine with doing things like that.

But she does think it will be faster.

That's absolutely true.

And I largely agree with their predictions about the pace of AI improvement.

But when it comes to the actual world, I feel they have underinvested

in the social sciences and history.

And I've had long extended back and forths with these people for now a few years.

And I'll stick with my current view.

I feel I win those debates.