Tyler Crowe

We're already starting to see like European curtailment of flights is already in the, I think it was, they said 2 million passenger range in this month alone.

There's a lot of things where we're starting to see the tightening of the markets to the point where we're seeing very high rising prices because we're just in short supply of things.

And it's hard to see that changing anytime soon.

At least to a degree, there's, I think, maybe a little bit more expectation this could be coming, because also in 2022, the thing that we had coinciding with it was 0% interest rates for a while.

And then all of a sudden, we're like, oh, man, we really need to change course here.

We're already, I think, with the federal fund rates is 3.5%, 3.75%.

So there's already some built-in interest rate sort of

I think it's a fair thing.

And when it comes to valuation, perhaps, I don't know.

I feel like there's a lot of more growth-oriented people that are maybe throwing valuation to the wayside these days, perhaps to my chagrin and why some of the stuff I've been buying has not been doing as well.

But when I'm thinking about this specifically in the consumer spending, inflation going up, budgets tightening,

I'm actually, the thing that I'm most thinking is like at risk is like the middle market stuff, not the discretionary, the Walmarts, the Costcos of the world, or the top end.

It's that stuff sort of in the middle.

And here's why I'm coming at it from this way.

I don't think it's any secret.

There's been reports all over.

50% of consumer spending these days is from the top 10% of earners in the United States.

in that regard you a lot of those things where you see discretionary spending on the higher end things might not change that much i mean take airlines for example we have been talking about higher gas prices and one of the biggest causes of inflation was airline tickets and yet over the past couple of weeks where we saw airlines give guidance for 2026 all of them raised earnings guidance and they were saying like we're booked up this is things are looking really good it's

It's, you know, maybe when international flights start to get canceled because of, we'll see a change in heart there.

But like for right now, the well-off are basically, you know, propping up a lot of spending in that regard.