Tyler

I want to look at the we've talked about, you know, the betting markets. We like to look at the betting markets because that's what people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is are saying. And they're tracking what they expect the specific outcome to be. And there there will be blunt. They don't see it as very likely we're going to win. They are narrowing in here.

I want to look at the we've talked about, you know, the betting markets. We like to look at the betting markets because that's what people who are willing to put their money where their mouth is are saying. And they're tracking what they expect the specific outcome to be. And there there will be blunt. They don't see it as very likely we're going to win. They are narrowing in here.

You can see all the odds for a close race are dropping all the odds for a super blowout. Those have fallen away, too. They're settling in. Their favorite is Susan Crawford by 8 to 10 points, 36%. And they still have some odds for by more than 10 and some by a little less than 8. But that's what they're surging for right now.

You can see all the odds for a close race are dropping all the odds for a super blowout. Those have fallen away, too. They're settling in. Their favorite is Susan Crawford by 8 to 10 points, 36%. And they still have some odds for by more than 10 and some by a little less than 8. But that's what they're surging for right now.

Now it's up to 73% in, and I'll be honest, Crawford has a bigger lead than she did before. Of all the votes? 73% of Kenosha. 73% of Kenosha County is in. This is a county that Trump won by about two points. I think it was actually three or four points. And we're down there by six, and that's worse than when it was at 50-50.

Now it's up to 73% in, and I'll be honest, Crawford has a bigger lead than she did before. Of all the votes? 73% of Kenosha. 73% of Kenosha County is in. This is a county that Trump won by about two points. I think it was actually three or four points. And we're down there by six, and that's worse than when it was at 50-50.

For sure. But again, we want to compare.

For sure. But again, we want to compare.

So we're going to in last November, we had three point four million people vote. This is going to be an enormously high turnout off election, considering it's not a midterm, not a general in the fall. This is a spring election. We're going to break two million votes on this. It looks like it'll be two point three to two point four.

So we're going to in last November, we had three point four million people vote. This is going to be an enormously high turnout off election, considering it's not a midterm, not a general in the fall. This is a spring election. We're going to break two million votes on this. It looks like it'll be two point three to two point four.

But that is a million missing voters where you'll be able to say if we'd had the fight, there will be 500000 Trump voters from last November who did not show up. And we're going it's going to be close enough that if we'd had, you know, plausibly half those people arrive, we might have won this. But.

But that is a million missing voters where you'll be able to say if we'd had the fight, there will be 500000 Trump voters from last November who did not show up. And we're going it's going to be close enough that if we'd had, you know, plausibly half those people arrive, we might have won this. But.

Not enough of those and just you lose by a few points, you know, as much as we won it in November, but we won it by point nine percent. There was not a lot of room for it to move left at all. So we likely had a bit of that. And then if you have the enthusiasm gap, if you have Democrats spending more because they really want to win because they're really fired up.

Not enough of those and just you lose by a few points, you know, as much as we won it in November, but we won it by point nine percent. There was not a lot of room for it to move left at all. So we likely had a bit of that. And then if you have the enthusiasm gap, if you have Democrats spending more because they really want to win because they're really fired up.

And they're also just, as we say, the higher prop party right now. They get more meaning out of politics. They invest more of themselves into politics. They're more likely to track every single race, however obscure it is. They're going to be able to pick up one point, it looks like. And we've got to...

And they're also just, as we say, the higher prop party right now. They get more meaning out of politics. They invest more of themselves into politics. They're more likely to track every single race, however obscure it is. They're going to be able to pick up one point, it looks like. And we've got to...

continue working on our strategy to get people whose engagement with voting as they may be voted for Trump in 2016 and voted for him in 2024 and otherwise have largely avoided voting. We need to work on the strategy of getting those people to consistently vote in midterm elections and in these off cycle elections that well,

continue working on our strategy to get people whose engagement with voting as they may be voted for Trump in 2016 and voted for him in 2024 and otherwise have largely avoided voting. We need to work on the strategy of getting those people to consistently vote in midterm elections and in these off cycle elections that well,

Because if the Democrats are the high prop party, they'll have the advantage in every election that is not a November election.

Because if the Democrats are the high prop party, they'll have the advantage in every election that is not a November election.