Vanan Murugesan

We are not going to be able to hide from this.

And eventually, it's going to get worse.

And I want to share a few interesting pieces that have been written.

This came from Liz Hoffman, her newsletter in Semaphore.

And she was trying to explain, answer the question, why do markets look calmer than they should in this current period?

Right.

So far, the price of oil hasn't gone as high yet as folks expect.

And the Nasdaq correction looks more of it AI driven due to the impact on the investors and some of the major investors in AI right now in the Gulf states.

And the question is, is this resilience or is this simply complacency, right?

Is the world so flush with money that it can still absorb more risk?

And maybe that's true of the American Stock Exchange.

Or investors expect another government bailout, right?

They got so used to government bailing them out of the COVID pandemic or government bailing them out of the credit crisis, right?

But there's a third option, and that is just simply borrowed time, right?

We got an oil buffer.

We have tankers already at sea.

You've had the National Reserve releases have already taken place in a lot of countries.

But guess what?

All of that is going to get exhausted sooner than you think.

And the real point that Liz Hoffman was trying to make is that the second and third order effects of this war have not landed yet.