Vincent Oshana

We'll continue to see oil go up and up and up until somebody blinks, whether it's the U.S.

or Iran.

I mean, the Strait of Hormuz continues.

You know, an expert comes out and talks about how $200 oil and two other scenarios could

tipped the world into recession, says this global bank.

$200 recession, according to the latest quarterly outlook from banking giant BNP Paribas.

The broader view expressed by the bank on Wednesday is that the world economy has been dented but not derailed by the war in Iran, though it does see lower GDP growth rates

higher inflation, more hawkish central banks than it did the beginning of the year.

The prospect of oil reaching $200 doesn't seem far-fetched, given the front-month Brent oil contract was trading at around $114 a barrel on Wednesday, up 88% this year.

But even in this case, where oil prices doesn't reach that high, the French bank expects a first-half average of $100.

The global economy is dangerously close to how BNP defines it.

A recession BNP is forecasting 3% GDP growth defines a recession at anything that's less than 2.5% worldwide.

The decade average is 3.5%.

Tom, how likely is it that oil goes to $200?

I don't think that's likely, and that's a headline they like to use.

But what is not good is oil is still way too high.

Like right now, WTI, which stands for West Texas Intermediate, if you look for oil quotes on American exchanges, that's what you'll find.

It's down almost $4 today to $101.

So it's almost $4 down.

It's still $101.50, I think it is right now.