Vinod Khosla
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Podcast Appearances
That requires an extraordinary amount of energy, all of this energy, but the oceans are like giant batteries. And when a hurricane gets going, that battery is accelerating the hurricane, and the hurricane sucks up more power from the battery, and it creates this incredibly dynamical system. There is no human-created energy system that can form a hurricane.
That requires an extraordinary amount of energy, all of this energy, but the oceans are like giant batteries. And when a hurricane gets going, that battery is accelerating the hurricane, and the hurricane sucks up more power from the battery, and it creates this incredibly dynamical system. There is no human-created energy system that can form a hurricane.
A hurricane is an extraordinarily powerful natural phenomenon that arises from the amount of energy that can come out of very, very, very hot oceans, relatively speaking. So that's really where these hurricanes are coming from. Now they're going to be more frequent if the ocean temperatures remain elevated as they seem to be and continue to be elevated.
A hurricane is an extraordinarily powerful natural phenomenon that arises from the amount of energy that can come out of very, very, very hot oceans, relatively speaking. So that's really where these hurricanes are coming from. Now they're going to be more frequent if the ocean temperatures remain elevated as they seem to be and continue to be elevated.
And this can be a function of generally the temperatures warming on earth, generally the removal of sulfur dioxide, generally these El Nino La Nina cycles. There's a lot of factors, but it seems to be the case that we are having a very significant trend of continuously warmer oceans.
And this can be a function of generally the temperatures warming on earth, generally the removal of sulfur dioxide, generally these El Nino La Nina cycles. There's a lot of factors, but it seems to be the case that we are having a very significant trend of continuously warmer oceans.
And those continuously warmer oceans means that we're going to have what used to be called a one in 500 year storm, which is what Asheville is being termed at, one in 500 year. These sorts of storm events can happen every couple of years. And we're now looking at one in 100 year events happening every two to three years. in the United States with the hurricane activity that we've been seeing.
And those continuously warmer oceans means that we're going to have what used to be called a one in 500 year storm, which is what Asheville is being termed at, one in 500 year. These sorts of storm events can happen every couple of years. And we're now looking at one in 100 year events happening every two to three years. in the United States with the hurricane activity that we've been seeing.
Let's talk about the economics. There's $500 billion to $1 trillion of real estate value on the Florida coastline. And what used to be a one in 100 year event, the average Florida homeowner historically has been paying about 1% of the real estate value in insurance.
Let's talk about the economics. There's $500 billion to $1 trillion of real estate value on the Florida coastline. And what used to be a one in 100 year event, the average Florida homeowner historically has been paying about 1% of the real estate value in insurance.
So now if your real estate is likely to be wiped out one out of every 20 years, instead of one out of every 500 years, the cost of insurance gets to the point that it is untenable for most people to pay for their insurance. Florida has a state-backed reinsurance provider called the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund.
So now if your real estate is likely to be wiped out one out of every 20 years, instead of one out of every 500 years, the cost of insurance gets to the point that it is untenable for most people to pay for their insurance. Florida has a state-backed reinsurance provider called the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund.
And this fund issues debt to meet its coverage demands because it reinsures insurance companies in order to incentivize them to come into the state and underwrite homeowners insurance.
And this fund issues debt to meet its coverage demands because it reinsures insurance companies in order to incentivize them to come into the state and underwrite homeowners insurance.
That's right, and what's happening is they would normally underwrite that risk. They would say, this is gonna cost, you're gonna lose the value of your home every 100 years or every 200 years.
That's right, and what's happening is they would normally underwrite that risk. They would say, this is gonna cost, you're gonna lose the value of your home every 100 years or every 200 years.
But now, the models are showing, because of the frequency of these sorts of hurricane events and the severity of the hurricane events, that maybe you'll lose the value of your home once every 20 years or once every 30 years. And no consumer is going to be willing or able to pay that much for the insurance on their home.
But now, the models are showing, because of the frequency of these sorts of hurricane events and the severity of the hurricane events, that maybe you'll lose the value of your home once every 20 years or once every 30 years. And no consumer is going to be willing or able to pay that much for the insurance on their home.
So the state over the last several years has had to step in and effectively subsidize the insurance. And now the state reinsurance vehicle only has statutory liability maximum of $17 billion in a single hurricane season. Now, I think they got lucky with Milton today, but some were estimating that the Milton losses were gonna be in excess of 100 billion, bigger than Katrina.
So the state over the last several years has had to step in and effectively subsidize the insurance. And now the state reinsurance vehicle only has statutory liability maximum of $17 billion in a single hurricane season. Now, I think they got lucky with Milton today, but some were estimating that the Milton losses were gonna be in excess of 100 billion, bigger than Katrina.