Vinod Khosla

We should think about this stuff.

We should think about this stuff.

For a venture firm to return capital, they need to have at least one or two big winners.

For a venture firm to return capital, they need to have at least one or two big winners.

And so if that winner needs to be a 10X or a 20X or a 30X of the fund, because most of the investments in the fund are not going to work, you need to be able to enter at a reasonable price and there needs to be enough opportunity relative to the capital trying to invest in that opportunity out there for it to make sense. So in a market where there is excess venture capital,

And so if that winner needs to be a 10X or a 20X or a 30X of the fund, because most of the investments in the fund are not going to work, you need to be able to enter at a reasonable price and there needs to be enough opportunity relative to the capital trying to invest in that opportunity out there for it to make sense. So in a market where there is excess venture capital,

where valuations are at a premium, and where you don't see the exit path, the M&A or the IPO events that make sense that you can actually realize that model, you should take less capital and make fewer, surer investments. And I think that that's what some folks have realized.

where valuations are at a premium, and where you don't see the exit path, the M&A or the IPO events that make sense that you can actually realize that model, you should take less capital and make fewer, surer investments. And I think that that's what some folks have realized.

They don't wanna be chasing highly valued inflated opportunities and they don't wanna be putting capital into tier B or tier C opportunities just for the sake of deploying capital. This is a really interesting moment where you can kind of see who are the right folks in terms of thinking long-term in Silicon Valley, long-term in terms of building an investment practice and private venture.

They don't wanna be chasing highly valued inflated opportunities and they don't wanna be putting capital into tier B or tier C opportunities just for the sake of deploying capital. This is a really interesting moment where you can kind of see who are the right folks in terms of thinking long-term in Silicon Valley, long-term in terms of building an investment practice and private venture.

And maybe who are folks that are trying to build their AUM stack. And folks who have done reasonably well, like Founders Fund has probably the most exceptional track record in Silicon Valley as a venture firm. They are very cognizant of the market conditions. And I think that they're being very smart.

And maybe who are folks that are trying to build their AUM stack. And folks who have done reasonably well, like Founders Fund has probably the most exceptional track record in Silicon Valley as a venture firm. They are very cognizant of the market conditions. And I think that they're being very smart.

By the way, the other thing I've heard from LPs is they're similarly trying to find more concentrated capital themselves. So they're trying to put more capital to work in fewer managers. And so there's a real wheat from the chaff moment happening in Silicon Valley venture right now. What I think a couple of years ago was, hey, everyone's going to go do a startup.

By the way, the other thing I've heard from LPs is they're similarly trying to find more concentrated capital themselves. So they're trying to put more capital to work in fewer managers. And so there's a real wheat from the chaff moment happening in Silicon Valley venture right now. What I think a couple of years ago was, hey, everyone's going to go do a startup.

A few years ago became everyone's going to go do a venture fund. And now I think the froth that has occurred because of that is being cleared out.

A few years ago became everyone's going to go do a venture fund. And now I think the froth that has occurred because of that is being cleared out.

Zero.

Zero.

No, like 5%. I think that's very unlikely. Because someone said that that was... That was a there was some code that enabled that in the early version of the app. And then some other people audited it. And they said they did not find evidence that there was any technology. And Apple's got a very good audit system for this.

No, like 5%. I think that's very unlikely. Because someone said that that was... That was a there was some code that enabled that in the early version of the app. And then some other people audited it. And they said they did not find evidence that there was any technology. And Apple's got a very good audit system for this.