Vivek Dhar

So look, a lot of the price expectations in coming months will be completely determined by when this trade of HOMUS is eventually reopened.

And this is the X factor.

Like I think the whole market right now, you know, all the scenarios were initially testing, okay, we're going to open in April, then we're going to open in May.

And it's looking like, is it going to be June?

But the problem is there is a time limit to this, because if we look at what prices have done so far, it actually jumped in March because everyone panicked.

Everyone was like, I need physical cargoes of oil and refined products.

So we saw diesel and jet fuel prices go crazy in March.

But we've seen that come back as these supply chains have normalized.

Refineries aren't panicking as much.

They found a way to do inventory drawdowns.

But this is now going to become the limiting factor, is what happens with the rate of inventory drawdown and at what levels do we need to get to before panic comes back in?

And this is where every analyst is paying attention.

Because if you look at the drawdown rates and what's happening, our estimation is that by June, July, it's going to get to levels where you'll have operational stress.

And that's probably where prices for oil, for example, will have to be set at levels that cause demand destruction, where prices are effectively too high,

for certain consumers, but particularly in emerging Asian economies.

And that we put at around $150 a barrel.

So you can see that there is a real time limit on this if we don't see a resolution very, very soon.

But the worst part comes if in September we don't have a deal.

That's when we get to operational floor levels for global inventories.

And if that gets reached, you know, we're talking potentially demand destruction for advanced economies.