Vivek Dhar

So, you know, we're talking a fifth of global LNG goes through the Strait of Hormuz.

So we've started seeing those prices tick higher.

So if you look at LNG spot prices before the crisis, they were just under US $11 per MMBTU.

They're now around $20.

So we've already seen about an 80% lift in LNG spot prices.

And if we go back to 2022, when we saw the whole crisis play out with LNG post the Russia-Ukraine war, we're nowhere near those price levels.

And what has really helped in the gas space from us avoiding the peaks, which hit $50 plus in that world, was we've actually seen about two thirds of the supply gap almost be solved by new supply coming onto the market.

which is phenomenal.

It is very, very lucky that this market was expecting a surplus in LNG and massive supply growth.

And therefore, LNG as an impacted commodity, it hasn't been nearly as impacted as it was in 2022.

So part of that story has been new LNG supply, but we've also seen coal usage in Asia pick up quite a bit.

And so that's been the other way that we've played it out.

But now thermal coal hasn't lifted nearly as much as we saw previously.

But in terms of that LNG story, it's right now early days.

But our worry is that once you get into the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is talking 1st of October 2026, that is when the market can get tight very quickly.

And so we're watching that restock cycle by Europe.

But so far, LNG has managed to wear this pretty well.

We haven't seen thermal coal prices really jump on this.

And it tells you that there's not really that much spare thermal coal capacity to really rely on for this thermal coal price pickup to be nearly in the same realm as LNG in this cycle.

Yeah, look, in terms of the story so far, look, I'd say it's both demand and supply that resulted in copper getting to record highs just a couple of weeks ago.