Vlad Tenev
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Yeah, so as you mentioned, this is part of our big unveil of prediction markets, which we've offered for a little bit over a year.
But remember, we started with just one prediction market on the platform, which was the presidential election in 2024.
And since then, we've gone to over 1,500 contracts on the platform across
pretty much every domain.
We've got politics, we've got world affairs, economics, culture, and we recently added weather, and of course, as you mentioned, sports.
So I think the major innovation here
and why it's been so disruptive to the sports industry is you can take the general prediction markets infrastructure, which are markets that trade on regulated exchanges where buyers and sellers are matched, and apply them to pretty much everything.
Now, of course, sports is an important subset of that because there's an existing large market there.
But we see a world where actually the percentage of non-sports contracts grows much faster than sports.
And I think several big industries are likely to be disrupted in the future.
Things like insurance, you can imagine with the weather contracts we have on a platform, people have already pointed out that trading and hedging with an insurance weather contract
could be superior to buying traditional insurance through a broker.
So as the market matures and you see increased in institutional participation, I think we could be at the very beginning of a prediction market super cycle with growth in volumes and enlisted contracts accelerating from here.
Well, I'm not exactly sure which incident you're referring to.
There was an incident in the sports betting space, which is entirely differently regulated.
Right.
Those are regulated on a state by state basis.
And I think they're obviously working hard to address these issues.
But what I tell you is.
Financial markets have had the infrastructure in terms of surveillance and monitoring to deal with these types of concerns, and they've been dealing with it for decades because obviously insider trading originated as a market integrity measure for the equities market.