Vlad Tenev

Looks like I'm an idiot.

No, but you can tell that from the polls, from the big polls, you can just tell that blue is the correct option.

No, you don't.

But those people who voted in it did not know beforehand.

And so if 10 million, or how many, hundreds of thousands of people voted, I think you can just assume that that's... The question is, like, if this actually was a real vote, would people spend a little bit more time thinking about the problem, and would that influence their answer?

Because the social media poll, people are scrolling, they see Mr. Beast ask a question, and they're just, like, curious.

There's no real stakes.

And so they just answer quickly.

David Shore says, we ask this to a large- If everybody hits the death gamble button together.

I don't think they really are big fans of my position.

I wonder what happens if you ask all the different LLMs this question.

So I just asked GPT, and this is like 5-5.

It says, I'd press blue.

Pressing red only helps me if enough people defect that blue falls below 50%, but also makes a bad outcome more likely.

Blue is a cooperative choice that maximizes the chance everyone survives.

And in the setup, my single vote has moral weight, even if it may not be pivotal.

Brutal truth.

Red is individually tempting as insurance, but if everyone reasons that way, everyone except red voters dies, so I choose blue.

Claude says, honestly, red.

And here's why I'll own that answer rather than dress it up.