Vlad Tenev

Because we could tell the elections were very, very useful, but the other contracts weren't.

I don't think had as much activity on them, not as much trading volume.

But from my standpoint, I didn't really care because we have so many products.

So we can roll out this thing to customers if it's not useful.

Yeah, there was a Hollywood one.

I remember years ago.

Yeah.

I mean, that was when I've, when I've read about the prediction markets lore, that one always comes up.

And then there was the, I think Google internally.

had a prediction market where people would like make predictions on how delayed features would be.

Oh, cool.

Just for the staff.

Just for the staff.

Cool.

And these were very accurate because obviously everyone has a disincentive to share bad news publicly.

And so they would give you a, they would give, you know, an official rosier picture, but in projects that weren't going well, the prediction markets would sort of like surface the issues.

And I think they were planning to roll that out, but they decided not to.

And then there was the, which one was it?

The Iowa prediction markets.

So there have been a couple of experiments, but yeah, I'd say when they became really big in 2024, it was the presidential election because that was a mass market event and everyone was kind of searching for the answer to this question of who's winning and how likely is it?