Warren Hatch
speaker
48 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2024
last heard Dec 2024
Warren Hatch’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And what we're generally concluding for the moment is that just a blanket tariff, maybe a 10% probability of that occurring at the moment, We'll know more as we see who gets staffed in the different positions. But the higher risks are in specific categories and specific countries. And we're just unfolding those questions now.
Well, I think one thing that I get asked a lot is the role of artificial intelligence in forecasting. And there are certainly an awful lot of firms popping up. But here's the thing too, just like with experts, there's an artificial tension between AI and humans, which from our point of view is misplaced.
We do know, because the studies have been out there, that at least for now, the humans continue to do better than artificial intelligence. Phil Tetlock did a big research project that came out a couple of months ago where they compared lots of different models None of them did better than the superforecasters and the best of them still lag by 20%. But what we've seen is that you want to have both.
You can use the LLMs, you can use the AI models to help humans get to a better number faster. So I'm very optimistic about the future with AI from that point of view.
First, slow down. We need to make lots of decisions every day, thousands, and most of those are going to be from the gut. But for the ones that really matter, slow down and use what Daniel Kahneman calls system two thinking. And you basically start having a dialogue with yourself. And that way you can challenge your thinking yourself.
You can double check your assumptions, make sure you're not overly confident about what you think you know. The next thing is to change your mind. Expect to change your mind as new information becomes available. Number three is to keep score. At the end of it all, to get better, you need feedback. You need to see if your forecasts occur with the frequency that you think they do.
You need to see if your reasoning aligns with how reality unfolds. So keep score, both for yourself to get better and better calibrated as a forecaster and to make, therefore, better decisions and extend that accountability to thought leaders, too.
Thank you, Lynn. It's been a pleasure.
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