Warren Hatch

What Daniel Kahneman calls the outside view to get a sense of,

What Daniel Kahneman calls the outside view to get a sense of,

what history can tell us what are the comparison classes out in the world where we can begin our forecasting where we can anchor ourselves most people will get anchored that's what happens so you want to anchor in the best possible place and then incrementally update from there so if you're thinking about schools and what the career trajectories are

what history can tell us what are the comparison classes out in the world where we can begin our forecasting where we can anchor ourselves most people will get anchored that's what happens so you want to anchor in the best possible place and then incrementally update from there so if you're thinking about schools and what the career trajectories are

You'd want to go and take a look at all the data for comparable schools and see what the history of graduation rates and the like have been, and then go narrower and narrower into what Kahneman calls the inside view to make the decision itself.

You'd want to go and take a look at all the data for comparable schools and see what the history of graduation rates and the like have been, and then go narrower and narrower into what Kahneman calls the inside view to make the decision itself.

That's actually step one is defined. Another word for that is base rate. How do things like this usually go? And by going to a base rate or outside view, that was basically synonyms, you'll get an immediate boost just by doing that compared to the rest of the crowd.

That's actually step one is defined. Another word for that is base rate. How do things like this usually go? And by going to a base rate or outside view, that was basically synonyms, you'll get an immediate boost just by doing that compared to the rest of the crowd.

Another good one for anyone to have on their checklist is to make a comment. When you've come up with an estimate about the future, jot down your rationale. One reason for that is it crystallizes your thinking. It also allows you to, in the future, look back and say, was I right for the right reasons or did I miss something? And it also allows you to share information with others.

Another good one for anyone to have on their checklist is to make a comment. When you've come up with an estimate about the future, jot down your rationale. One reason for that is it crystallizes your thinking. It also allows you to, in the future, look back and say, was I right for the right reasons or did I miss something? And it also allows you to share information with others.

And that's how you get a high quality forecast from a crowd. Most wisdom of the crowd approaches. You ask everybody. Then you take an average and you're done. That's where we start.

And that's how you get a high quality forecast from a crowd. Most wisdom of the crowd approaches. You ask everybody. Then you take an average and you're done. That's where we start.

And what we'd like to do is have everyone make a comment and then exchange those ideas and see if somebody had a point that maybe I missed and then make an update, which is the next very crucial thing is expect to change your view, make an update. And you just do those few things. You're going to end up with a better number. Start with a base rate, make a comment, exchange views, update.

And what we'd like to do is have everyone make a comment and then exchange those ideas and see if somebody had a point that maybe I missed and then make an update, which is the next very crucial thing is expect to change your view, make an update. And you just do those few things. You're going to end up with a better number. Start with a base rate, make a comment, exchange views, update.

One area where we learned a lot was during the pandemic. We were talking about experts earlier. And one thing about experts as well as artificial intelligence is they have models. That's the way they work. And if you have a model, then you're using backward-looking data to build your model. And that works great when we're in moments of relative equilibrium.

One area where we learned a lot was during the pandemic. We were talking about experts earlier. And one thing about experts as well as artificial intelligence is they have models. That's the way they work. And if you have a model, then you're using backward-looking data to build your model. And that works great when we're in moments of relative equilibrium.

But when things get upended and there is a lot of flux, those models don't work so well. And almost by definition, the experts are going to be slower to recognize that because their models will be filtering out the subtle changes that are eroding their models. And an excellent example of that was when COVID began to go global.

But when things get upended and there is a lot of flux, those models don't work so well. And almost by definition, the experts are going to be slower to recognize that because their models will be filtering out the subtle changes that are eroding their models. And an excellent example of that was when COVID began to go global.

And many of the experts with their models were downplaying the significant, not all of them, but many of them. I think even most of them were saying that this thing will be contained. And instead, of course, it became something much more significant.

And many of the experts with their models were downplaying the significant, not all of them, but many of them. I think even most of them were saying that this thing will be contained. And instead, of course, it became something much more significant.