Warren Hatch

Our forecasters who were not bound by a particular model and were skilled at identifying these subtle shifts did much better at identifying how quickly the pandemic would spread They also did very well at identifying when a vaccine would become available. They saw it becoming available far sooner than the experts did.

Our forecasters who were not bound by a particular model and were skilled at identifying these subtle shifts did much better at identifying how quickly the pandemic would spread They also did very well at identifying when a vaccine would become available. They saw it becoming available far sooner than the experts did.

And that, of course, getting those two pieces has enormous implications for public policy, for investing, and for personal life decisions. So for us, that was a really critical example where we could also contribute to the public discourse on an important issue of about how to think about applying this process in real world situations, especially when there's a lot of flux going on.

And that, of course, getting those two pieces has enormous implications for public policy, for investing, and for personal life decisions. So for us, that was a really critical example where we could also contribute to the public discourse on an important issue of about how to think about applying this process in real world situations, especially when there's a lot of flux going on.

That's where this kind of a process can really shine is when things get upended, when there's more uncertainty than we recognized.

That's where this kind of a process can really shine is when things get upended, when there's more uncertainty than we recognized.

it's a process that can be useful in everyday decision-making, but I think where it really stands out relative to other ways of thinking about the world is when there is a lot of flux and maybe not so much dark black swans as very dark gray swans. Because some of these things may be small probability, but high impact.

it's a process that can be useful in everyday decision-making, but I think where it really stands out relative to other ways of thinking about the world is when there is a lot of flux and maybe not so much dark black swans as very dark gray swans. Because some of these things may be small probability, but high impact.

And somehow getting those small probability items on your radar can help you be better prepared. And in the case of the pandemic, there were some people who were identifying that as a possibility, not something that they were attaching high probabilities to, but it was definitely on their radar. And I think identifying those kinds of dark gray swans

And somehow getting those small probability items on your radar can help you be better prepared. And in the case of the pandemic, there were some people who were identifying that as a possibility, not something that they were attaching high probabilities to, but it was definitely on their radar. And I think identifying those kinds of dark gray swans

is part of a good, successful forecasting process. But once it hits, you're absolutely right. Now it's here. Now what do we do? Well, one thing we should do is discount how much reliance we have on the static models. We don't want to get rid of them completely, but the importance and the reliance we've previously had on them should be discounted.

is part of a good, successful forecasting process. But once it hits, you're absolutely right. Now it's here. Now what do we do? Well, one thing we should do is discount how much reliance we have on the static models. We don't want to get rid of them completely, but the importance and the reliance we've previously had on them should be discounted.

And we should instead factor in more weight to probabilistic judgment from people who are recognizing the small subtle factors that will eventually lead to new models.

And we should instead factor in more weight to probabilistic judgment from people who are recognizing the small subtle factors that will eventually lead to new models.

One is, yeah, another pandemic could be a dark gray swan, wildfires. has become such a thing where the frequency is much higher than it was. But where are they going to hit? That's the challenge. I think a lot of the AI developments can also fall into that category, what some of those risks might look like. And also possible global conflicts. One that we're looking at more is in Korea.

One is, yeah, another pandemic could be a dark gray swan, wildfires. has become such a thing where the frequency is much higher than it was. But where are they going to hit? That's the challenge. I think a lot of the AI developments can also fall into that category, what some of those risks might look like. And also possible global conflicts. One that we're looking at more is in Korea.

We started looking at this a couple of months ago because there have been some changes. There have been some changes to North Korea's doctrine. North Korea sent troops to fight on Russia's behalf around Kursk. These are, in the global scheme of things, small but significant. So we're paying much more attention to how events on the Korean Peninsula may unfold as a possible dark, gray swan.

We started looking at this a couple of months ago because there have been some changes. There have been some changes to North Korea's doctrine. North Korea sent troops to fight on Russia's behalf around Kursk. These are, in the global scheme of things, small but significant. So we're paying much more attention to how events on the Korean Peninsula may unfold as a possible dark, gray swan.

And tariffs, there's an incoming administration with a wish list, and that's high on the wish list. So some sort of tariffs seems in the bag. But the more significant question, certainly for people who are asking us for our forecast, is where, on what categories of goods, which countries are some of them gonna get exempted, or will it be an across the board thing? Exactly what does that look like?

And tariffs, there's an incoming administration with a wish list, and that's high on the wish list. So some sort of tariffs seems in the bag. But the more significant question, certainly for people who are asking us for our forecast, is where, on what categories of goods, which countries are some of them gonna get exempted, or will it be an across the board thing? Exactly what does that look like?