Warren Hogan

And what we seem to be seeing is for some reason, I can't explain it, Australia is six months behind everyone in this cycle in terms of both growth and inflation.

And it's good for us because we can learn from others, whether it's New Zealand, the United States, the UK.

And the US is looking like it's starting to roll over now.

The New Zealand housing market certainly has.

I'm not sure exactly, but the numbers in Australia right up until this winter look pretty good.

I know consumer sentiment's terrible, but that's sort of a different story.

That is that cost of living issue.

employment seems good the demand for labor more generally seems good spending seems good i mean even in the housing market we haven't seen a massive collapse in the demand for mortgages they're coming off but they're still at pretty high levels and prices are adjusting but you know i'm still i'm not convinced that we're seeing a route in the housing market so to speak so

I think it could start to happen towards the end of the year as we go into summer.

And of course, if it does, that hopefully means the RBA doesn't have to take the cash rate as up as much and there's less risk that they overshoot and have an error.

So I think it's the end of this year, early next year that we have our soft patch and it's a desirable soft patch.

It's better to have a short-lived, shallow downturn in the next six to nine months than leave it till later and have a big recession in late 23 or 24.