Wei-Lin Wong
Appearances
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
This kind of scientific arms race is bringing to the fore long simmering tensions in the meteorology community. The tension is over how weather data should flow between the government and private companies and at what price. This is The Indicator from Planet Money. I'm Waylon Wong.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
commonly referred to as NOAA. And the National Weather Service is the main source of weather data, forecasts, and warnings in the U.S. Its job is to protect life and property. And that means making weather data universally available to everyone as a public service.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
So like when you see the local weather forecast on the news, for example, there's a good chance that the underlying data comes from the government.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
Private companies like these take data from NOAA and the National Weather Service. They put their own spin on it, say, by applying proprietary computer models. They can then sell specialized data and hyper local forecast to customers that are highly dependent on the weather.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
Keith says there's been a couple of sources of friction between the government and these private weather companies in the last few decades. One source of friction has to do with the overall ethos of the National Weather Service. Keith says if the agency could provide better data to the public for free, it would do just that.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
But Keith says this stance didn't sit well with some private companies, you know, the ones making a living from selling specialized forecasts. If customers could get sophisticated data from the government for free, maybe they wouldn't want to pay for that kind of information anymore.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
Well, these days, Keith says private companies are launching their own satellites and selling the data. And NOAA and the National Weather Service have become customers. In some cases, Keith says, the agencies are buying data from these private companies because it's cheaper than operating those satellites themselves.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
Over the years, some policymakers have tried to limit the government's role in weather forecasting. This surfaced most recently in Project 2025, a policy blueprint from conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation. That document argues that some of NOAA's functions could be carried out commercially at lower cost and higher quality.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
Yeah, like some municipalities supplement government forecasts with information from private companies that they pay for. But then it's like, what about towns that can't afford to do that?
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
Exactly. And in economics, we talk about this thing called a public good. A public good is something that can be used simultaneously by multiple people without diminishing, and it's something that's available to everyone.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
Adrienne Ma, what is an app on your phone that you use every single day?
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
And this benefit isn't just abstract for Renato. He and a colleague crunched the numbers around this federal program that's aimed at improving hurricane forecasts. They estimate that it led to $7 billion in avoided damages and costs since 2009.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
In the case of Hurricane Milton this year, accurate forecasts meant that many people in Florida had ample warning to prepare. The alert enabled one of the largest evacuations in state history. And that might have prevented the devastation from being even worse. This episode was produced by Julia Ritchie with engineering by Kweisi Lee. It was fact-checked by Sarah Juarez and edited by Patty Hirsch.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
Kicking Cannon is our show's editor and The Indicator is a production of NPR.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
As NPR's daily economics podcast, The Indicator has been asking businesses how tariffs are affecting their bottom line. I paid $800,000 today.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
Me too. Now, here's another question. Do you ever think about where the weather forecast on your phone comes from?
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
And what that means for your bottom line. Listen to The Indicator from Planet Money. Find us wherever you get your podcasts.
Short Wave
What's A Weather Forecast Worth?
Yeah, I never really thought about this either until I started using a specific weather app on my phone. The app lets me toggle between almost a dozen forecasting sources. And confession, sometimes if I'm hoping for a particular forecast, I'll just shop around in the app until I get the forecast that I want.